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Deathly demographic warnings for India

V SUNDARAM

        To quote the appropriate words of A P Joshi, M.D. Srinivas and J K Bajaj: 'The great time less fact about India, besides the extraordinary fertility of her lands and numerousness of her people, is the homogeneity of her civilisation and culture. Perceptive observers of India from the earliest times have often acknowledged and commented upon the uniqueness of Indian ideas and institutions that pervade nearly every part of India. This cultural homogeneity has come under stress during the last several centuries. The stress has been especially acute during the last two hundred years or so with the ascendance of modern ideologies that tend to look upon the homogeneity of India as a source of oppression and backwardness. This ideological prejudice manifests in the public life of India in the name of protection of distinctive ways of life of religious minorities, especially those belonging to Islam and Christianity. Such influences have led to Partition of India into three separate political entities; religious heterogeneity of certain parts of India formed the sole basis for this partition'.

        The following table clearly brings out the fact that the percentage of Indian Religionists (Hindus, Jains, Sikhs, Parsis, Buddists, and other non-Islamic and non-Christian faiths) in the total Indian Population declined from 86.6 in 1901 to 84.4 percent in 1941. Between 1941 and 1951, their proportion rose by about 2.8 percentage points as a result of the forced and violent transfer of populations that occurred at the time of Partition. And in the following four decades their proportion has declined by the 2.2 percentage points.

        The percentage of Muslims increased from 12.21 in 1901 to 30.38 in 2001. The percentage of Christians increased from 1.15 in 1901 to 2.06 in 2001.

        The following table presents the religious composition of the population of those areas of Pakistan that constitute Pakistan today:

        The above Table shows that the proportion of Indian Religionists in this part of India was rising considerably during the pre-Partition period; their share went up from 15.9 percent in 1901 to 19.7 percent in 1941. This was the only part of India, where Indian Religionists were growing at a rate higher than that of Muslims. This process was brought to a sudden end by the partition of India in 1947. At the time of partition, the nation of Pakistan was purged clean of India Religionists. Thus, the percentage of Indian Religionists declined drastically from 19.7 in 1941 to 1.60 in 1951. After that it has remained almost at the same level. In 1991 it was 1.65%. It is very clear that Hindus have been eliminated in a systematic manner in Pakistan after 1947 without resorting to Hitler's methods of genocide!

        In Table 3 below I am presenting the religious composition of the population of the areas that constitutes Bangladesh today.

        In 1901, Indian Religionists formed 33.9 percent of the population of Bangladesh; their proportion declined to 29.6 percent in the forty years from 1901 to 1941. Their proportion declined further to 22.9 percent in 1951 as a consequence of Partition; and in the forty years from 1951 to 1991, the proportion of Indian Religionists has been cut down to almost half, at 11.4 percent. During 1991-2001, percentage of Muslim population increased by 18%, while that of Indian Religionists by merely 1.8%. There has been systematic elimination and persecution of Hindus in Bangladesh during this time.

        The proportion of Indian Religionists (I.R.) declined from 87% in 1901 to 84.4% in 1941. Following the partition, it increased to 87.24% in 1951. After 50 years in 2001 it drastically declined to 67.56%. A.P. Joshi, M.D. Srinivas and J.K. Bajaj have rightly warned that this drastic decline in the share of the majority community in a compact geographical and civilisational region like India is an extraordinary occurrence to happen in the course of just about a century.

        Statement VII of Census 2001 Religion Data Report clearly brings out the looming dark shadows of future demographic changes taking place across the country. On the basis of religions demography, the Indian Union can be divided into three regions.

        A) Region I, where Indian Religionists (IR) dominate. This region comprises almost all of North West, Western, Central and Southern India. Share of IR in this region is about 85%. The average for this region is 91%.

        B) Region II, where IR have been suffering a steady decline. This comprises Uttaranchal, UP, Bihar, Jarkhand, West Bengal and Assam. Their share in different States varies from 65% to 80% except in Uttaranchal. In this region, the Indian Religionists (IR) are under pressure. The average for the region is 80%.

        C) Region III, where IR have already lost their prominence. This includes all the States in the Eastern border belt where the IR are losing out. Their share is less than 65% everywhere excepting in Goa, Arunachal Pradesh and Tripura. The average for this region is 50%. West Bengal and Assam have shown great changes. Four of the current districts of Assam in this belt now have Muslim majority. These are Dhubri, Goalpara, Barpeta and Nagaon. Muslim proportion in Dhubri is 74.5%. In Marigaon it is nearly 100%. In West Bengal, Murshidabad has 64% Muslim population. In Maldah and Uttar Dinajpur, it is almost 100%.

        The pseudo-secular politicians and educated classes in India do not seem to understand the reasons that recently prompted the British Prime Minister Tony Blair to advise all British couples to opt for the five children norm (two more than what Sri K.S. Sudarshan, Sarsanghachalak of the R.S.S. prescribed for the Hindus of India). They don't seem to ask the question: 'Why have in recent years most European Countries announced liberal cash bonuses to those couples who opt to have more children'?

        All the right thinking people in India should not refuse to face the cold facts emerging from the recent demographic trends. If the trend of decline in the percentage of IR seen during 1881-1991 continues, then the proportion of Indian Religionists in India is likely to fall below 50 percent early in the latter half of the twenty-first century. What is at stake is secularism. What is at stake is humanism. What is in mortal peril is Sanathana Dharma. I mentioned about England and Europe only to highlight that this problem has global dimensions as well. Why this global panic? Well, the answer is that in 1900 the Muslims constituted 12% of the world population. They grew to 18% in 1992-93 when Huntington published his famous book on the clash of civilizations. By 2003, the Muslims came to constitute 21% of the world population. It is expected that by 2025, they would constitute 30% of the world population. While all the European countries have woken up to this challenge, our Government is in a state of self-chosen stupor and inertia under a de jure Prime Minister who gets woken up twice in a year in a jerky manner by a de facto Prime Minister for trivial purposes of no national significance.

        To conclude, Indian not only has a unique geography, but also a unique culture. Thus, Kingsley Davis, the pioneering demographer of India, wrote in 1951: 'Indian ideas and institutions, taken as a whole, resemble those of no other people. They have a peculiar shape and flavour of their own. They have tended to transform and absorb any foreign elements that trickled into the region; for India, though politically conquered by outsiders, was never culturally conquered. This peculiar culture has to some degree penetrated and pervaded nearly every part of what is geographically India. It has everywhere been affected by local, indigenous variations. But neither the geographical nor the social barriers inside the subcontinent have been sufficient to prevent the widespread diffusion of a common, basic culture, which despite great variation is peculiar to India'.

        If the current demographic trends are allowed to continue, then not only men like Kingsley Davis but all those who believe in the permanence and continuity of the timeless culture of India founded on Sanathana Dharma and Hindu way of life will be proved wrong with disastrous consequences for India in particular and the world as a whole in general in the not very distance future. Indeed, what we fear is an unprecedented phenomenon in the cultural history of mankind. The most unfortunate aspect of the whole problem is that it is not being noticed by the Government of India because of its declared ideological commitment to the appeasement of religions minorities and planned marginalization of majority Indian Religionists (IR) under the safe political umbrella of pseudo-secularism.

(The writer is a retired IAS officer)
e-mail the writer at
vsundaram@newstodaynet.com


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