A momentous week indeed, with many moments of truth, or at least versions of it. The tidings were mixed, and also varied with the point of view; what was good for one was not so for another, but that’s always the case. The greater truth is that what is seemingly good has ugly undertones, set to surface in time if not already, while what looks bad at present has the seeds for future good embedded in it. Really, every event and occurrence has the three shades built in it.
Sri Lanka tops the global charts in terms of sheer importance. This tiny idyllic nation has scored the first victory in the war on terror when even the mighty America is still fiddling in Af-Pak-Iraq. The complete decimation of the LTTE is no doubt good news for those yearning for peace and having regard for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of nation-states. The bad news is that the LTTE has taken the entire cause with its legitimate trappings too down with it, leaving the hapless Tamils totally at the mercy of known oppressors. Displaced and disgraced, the Tamil population now faces a humanitarian crisis of such magnitude that things like democratic devolution and self-determination would barely register in their ear-drums deafened by bombs and numbed by hunger. The ugly face of war as usual unfolds only after the war, when it is too late.
While some fringe elements would still love to keep the myth of Prabakaran alive, Tiger politics which peaked at poll time would now vanish from the TN mainstream. And that is good news. But India can never wipe the bad blood off its hands. Prabakaran was a creature of India’s creation and typically went on to bite the ‘hand’ that nurtured him. The plight of the Sri Lankan Tamils was never in India’s scheme of things. While in the eighties they were pawns in the geo-political games of the region wherein Indian leadership used the Tigers and other Tamil militant groups as a check on Jayawardhane, from the nineties till now the Tamils’ issue was a mere propoganda prop for politicians here. The ease with which first J and then K ‘declared’ Eelam in the last week of campaign was ugly to boot and exposed the utter flippancy with which they treated a life and death cause. But uglier was the morbid end and the murky way in which Prabakaran’s nemesis came to be, and I am not just referring to those haunting visuals. What coincidence that P should ‘die’ so conveniently, just after polls here!
None were more surprised by the poll outcome than the Congmen themselves. In the interregnum between polling and results, the Cong was busy apologising and entreating prospective allies like the SP and Left, but the moment the Grand Old Party scented success, it took no time to rediscover its genetically ingrained hubris and humiliate erstwhile and would-be ‘friends’. Not that the likes of Lalu and Amar deserved anything better, either. A relatively stable Centre sans the sinister shadow of such professional power-brokers and blackmailers is truly good news. A greater cause for celebration, though, is the near total eclipse of the Left, at a time when the economy is tottering owing to global recession and can do without self-styled speed breakers committed to stall any and everything! Instability, nevertheless, is still a prospect with many more bad eggs remaining in the basket. M Singh has already had a rocky start, but we will come to that shortly.
To the flip side of UPA’s good show, now. How has only a marginal rise in national vote-share given a manifold yield of seats to the Cong and UPA? While anti-incumbency helped Cong in Kerala and Bengal, arithmetic aided it no end in states like TN, Maharashtra and AP where parties like DMDK, MNS and Praja Rajyam respectively ensured the defeat of Cong’s arch opponents. Rajasthan and Delhi were the true success stories. While there is a genuine upswing in Cong’s fortunes in UP, courtesy Rahul, the clinching factor however has been the consolidation of Muslim votes in that party’s favour. Varun may have did his bit in pushing that vote bank into Cong’s hands, but the minority card of Sachar combined with Cong’s ‘complete’ respect for Muslim sentiments displayed in one too many ways has reaped rich electoral dividends. Expect appeasement politics to rear its ugly head more often from now on. Long live Afzal Guru!
Was Sonia a factor? All good Congmen would like to believe it was she who came to the aid of the party. Here is a Devil’s argument, not least to wipe the mud on my moustache: The rise in Cong vote-share, albeit marginal, is precisely because Sonia is no longer a contender to the PM post and the party therefore seeming a lot more acceptable! And if indeed, it is ‘clean’ MSingh as a PM prospect who brought in the middle-class votes, is it not fair on the part of Sonia to ease her grip and let him function independently, with due respect to the mandate? Aah, move over, optimists! Here are the real ratings. Good: The puppet is strong, having got himself stuffed a bit more. Bad: The puppeteer is stronger, with less checks and even lesser need to balance allies. Ugly: Another puppeteer in the form of an emboldened Rahul has entered the scene. Henceforth, it would be a two-string puppet show. Incidentally, the nation can kiss all those lakhs of crores of Swiss money goodbye, like it did with the Bofors booty. On the contrary Swiss Banks can turn bullish on India. For, absolute power corrupts absolutely and such cross-border corruption has always been good for the balance sheets of Swiss banks!
Cut to TN. The PMK’s washout is good news beyond compare. The poll is worth it if only for this. The rise of V’Kanth as a sure alternative to J & K too is good news. The bad news is that cinema’s sway over TN looks more or less permanent. But K & family have made a clean sweep of all that is ugly. TN’s self-respect was flying high in the Capital as its sole Thalaivar wheeled around its lanes and by-lanes, alternately begging, bargaining and blackmailing for ministerial morsels for his kith and kin, with nary a semblance of shame inhibiting him. And there was open talk of plum portfolios! Now what can that mean other than the posts yielding copious harvest for the holder? No doubt, the TN polls had turned out to be a costly affair for the DMK and there has to be a recouping, but is it rational to be so brazen? Again, why not seek External affairs so that the DMK can solve the Eelam issue? Or the Ministry of Family Welfare, which would suit K’s fatal obsession? But then outside support too is fair enough for now: the Kalaignar can always invent some smart slogans to convert the sour grapes into a juicy political cocktail.
So is the nation in for some good times? Let’s hope so, despite the many bad omens. And pray things dont take a U-turn. I don’t have to say what ‘U’ means.
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