New Delhi: A possible third wave of Covid-19 may hit its peak in October-November this year if Covid-appropriate behaviour is not followed, but it is likely to see half the number of daily cases that were recorded during the second surge, said a scientist of the government panel in charge of modelling Covid-19 cases.
Manindra Agarwal, involved in the ‘Sutra Model’ or the mathematical projection of trajectory of Covid-19, also said the model has three scenarios–optimistic, intermediate and pessimistic–for the prediction of the third wave.
He, however, said the third wave could spread faster if any new virulent variant emerges. The Department of Science and Technology had last year formed the panel to forecast the surge of coronavirus cases using mathematical models.
The panel came up with the Sutra Model last year to mathematically project the trajectory of Covid-19 in India. They were criticised earlier this year for not having predicted the ferocity of the second wave of the pandemic.
Besides Agrawal, who is a professor at IIT-Kanpur, the panel also has M Vidyasagar, another scientist with IIT-Hyderabad, and Lt. Gen Madhuri Kanitkar, Deputy Chief (Medical) of Integrated Defence Staff, as members.
About the predictions for the third wave, Agarwal said the loss of immunity, effects of vaccination and the possibility of a more virulent variant have been factored in this time, which was not done while modelling the second wave. He said a detailed report will be published soon.