Chennai: An analysis by scientists has said that the India’s population may peak to about 1.6 billion in 2048, and decline by 32 per cent to around 1.09 billion in 2100, when it is also expected to be the world’s most populous country.
Published in the journal The Lancet, the study used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017, and applied novel models to project future global, regional, and national population for 183 countries, including India, US, China, and Japan, and their mortality, fertility, and migration rates.
Scientists, including those from the University of Washington in the US, said there may be dramatic declines in working age-populations in countries such as India and China, which they said may hamper economic growth and lead to shifts in global powers.
They said the world could be multipolar at the end of this century, with India, Nigeria, China, and the US the dominant powers. “This will truly be a new world, one we should be preparing for today,” researchers said.
As per the research, the numbers of working-age adults in India is projected to fall from 762 million in 2017 to around 578 million in 2100, compared to that of China where numbers of workers are estimated to decline from 950 million in 2017 to 357 million in 2100.
It said India may be one of the few — if only — major power in Asia to protect its working-age population over the century.
“It is expected to surpass China’s workforce population in the mid-2020s, rising up the GDP rankings from 7th to 3rd,” the scientists said in a statement.
They said said India may be one of the few — if only — major power in Asia to protect its working-age population over the century.
“It is expected to surpass China’s workforce population in the mid-2020s, rising up the GDP rankings from 7th to 3rd,” the researchers added.