China’s most important political event of 2022, and indeed of the coming five years, will kick off on October 16 when the 20th National Congress of the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and its 90 million members convenes.Undoubtedly, Chairman Xi Jinping will extend his term in power for another five years. He will either be re-elected as general secretary of the CCP, or will be newly elected as chairman of the CCP, a title that has lain dormant since 1982 and was once the highest position ever held by Mao Zedong.The congress is taking place at one of the most perilous periods in international affairs in recent years. A war is raging in Ukraine as President Vladimir Putin attempts to burnish his credentials as a great Russian leader, and China remains a staunch supporter of this would-be tsar.At the same time, Taiwan Strait tensions are at their highest in decades, as China attempts to pummel Taipei into acquiescence. Add to this economic malaise, diplomatic tensions with the USA, and the after-effects of a global pandemic and China’s own paranoid efforts to stamp out COVID-19, and all the ingredients for a brewing storm are present.
Xi, a subject of intense hero worship and a state-sanctioned personality cult, will pretend that all is serene in his government. As he sits unperturbedly atop the CCP pile, he will doubtlessly install more of his acolytes and proteges into top offices to carry out his divine wishes over the coming five years and beyond.Yes, indeed, the 20th National Congress is a mightily important event not only for China but for the whole world.Analyzing this important political event, the John L. Thornton China Center at the Brookings Institute in the USA held a discussion about the congress on October 4. It was aptly entitled, “Will China’s strongman become even stronger?”Cheng Li, Director of the John L. Thornton China Center and a Senior Fellow at Brookings pointed out that no important leakage of information has occurred prior to the 20th National Congress. He said it was rare that the world really has no idea of who will be in the next Politburo Standing Committee – including no rumours put out by opposing factions – so this shows a high degree of discipline and unity.Of the 2,296 delegates, some 80 per cent have their biographies online. Li added that there is no credible political or leadership challenge to Xi and, while some unexpected promotions might occur, there will not be major surprises at the congress. The academic said this all shows that “Xi Jinping, from his perspective, is in charge”.