The Economic Survey tabled by Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has forecast India’s real GDP to record a growth of 11 per cent in 2021-22 and nominal GDP by 15.4 per cent-the highest since independence, believing that rebound will be led by the low base and continued normalisation in economic activities as the rollout of Covid-19 vaccines gathers traction.
This path would entail a growth in real GDP by 2.4 percent over the absolute level of 2019-20-implying that the economy would take two years to reach and go past the pre-pandemic level. These projections are in line with IMF estimates of real GDP growth of 11.5 per cent in 2021-22 for India and 6.8 per cent in 2022-23. India is expected to emerge as the fastest growing economy in the next two years as per IMF, the Survey said.
The Economic Survey states that the combined (Centre and States) social sector expenditure as per cent of GDP has increased in 2020-21 compared to last year. The expenditure on social services (education, health and other social sectors) by Centre and States combined as a proportion of GDP increased from 7.5 per cent in 2019-20 (RE) to 8.8 per cent in 2020-21 (BE). The Survey describes that the Government has given incentive to boost employment under the scheme Atmanirbhar Bharat Rojgar Yojana. Let’s hope for more positive things in the budget.