New Delhi: The southwest monsoon is likely to hit Kerala on 5 June, a delay of four days as compared to its normal onset date, the India Meteorological Department said on Friday.
The onset of monsoon over Kerala marks the commencement of the four-month long rainfall season from June to September. According to the normal onset date, monsoon makes an arrival in Kerala on 1 June.
“The onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala this year is likely to be slightly delayed as compared to normal date of onset. The monsoon onset over Kerala this year is likely to be on 5 June with a model error of plus or minus 4 days,” the IMD said.
The monsoon is likely to arrive over the Andaman and Nicobar islands by May 16, six days before its new onset date of 22 May due to a cyclonic storm in the Bay of Bengal. Even last year, the monsoon had reached the Andaman and Nicobar archipelago on 18 May, two days ahead of its then normal onset date of 20 May. But due to its sluggish pace, it reached Kerala on 8 June. It covered the entire country by 19 July.
According to the IMD forecast, monsoon is likely to be normal this year. The country receives 75 per cent of its rainfall from the southwest monsoon during June to September. It is not only crucial for farming in the country, but also for replenishing reservoirs, and more importantly to the economy which is still largely dependent on agriculture.
Northeast monsoon is another phenomenon that brings rainfall to Tamilnadu, Puducherry, parts of Kerala and Andhra Pradesh from October to December. From this year, the IMD has also revised the dates of onset and withdrawal dates of the monsoon for several parts of the country based on the data from 1960 to 2019. The previous dates were based on the data from 1901 to 1940.
However, the onset date for monsoon over Kerala, which is 1 June, remains unchanged In states like Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, Jharkhand, Bihar and parts of Uttar Pradesh, monsoon will be delayed by 3-7 days compared to the existing normal dates.
For the national capital, the new normal onset date for monsoon has been revised from 23 June to 27 June — a delay of four days. Similarly, dates have been revised for Mumbai and Kolkata from 10 June to 11 June, and for Chennai from 1 June to 4 June. However, over extreme northwest India, the monsoon will arrive a little earlier, on 8 July, as compared to the existing date of 15 July. The new date for monsoon withdrawal from south India is 15 October.