Chennai: A latest study has found that carbon emission cuts need to be about 80 per cent more ambitious to stay below 2 degree Celsius global warming — considered a threshold for climate stability and climate-related risks such as excessive heat, drought, extreme weather and sea level rise.
Researchers including those from the University of Washington in the United States, used statistical tools to reevaluate the cuts in carbon emissions that would be needed globally to stay below the 2 degree target proposed in the Paris Agreement international climate treaty.
As per the study published in the journal Communications Earth and Environment, an average of 1.8 per cent drop in emissions per year rather than the previously agreed 1 per cent per year, would be required to stay within the 2 degree threshold.
The scientists stated in the study: “To have an even chance of staying below 2 degrees Celsius, the average rate of decline in emissions would need to increase from the 1 per cent per year needed to meet the nationally determined contributions, to 1.8 per cent per year.”
Researchers used the same statistical approach to model the three main drivers of human-produced greenhouse gases — national population, gross domestic product per person, and the amount of carbon emitted for each dollar of economic activity, known as carbon intensity.
According to study lead author Adrian Raftery from the University of Washington in the US, ‘a number of people have been saying, particularly in the past few years, that the emissions targets need to be more ambitious. We went beyond that to ask in a more precise way: How much more ambitious do they need to be?
The study revealed a range of likely future outcomes based on data and projections so far.
Even with updated methods and five more years of data, the conclusion remained similar to the previous estimates: Meeting Paris Agreement targets would give only a 5 per cent probability of staying below 2 degrees Celsius warming.
Since climate policies may not targeting population growth or economic growth, the researchers calculated what change in the carbon intensity measure could likely be needed to meet the 2 degrees warming goal.
Scientists now believe increasing the overall targets to cut carbon emissions by an average of 1.8 per cent annually, as opposed to 1 per cent, and continuing on that path after the Paris Agreement expires in 2030, would give the planet a 50 per cent chance of staying below 2 degrees warming by 2100.