Chennai: Shocking it may sound, scientists working on a mathematical model to work out the course of Covid-19 pandemic say there is a possibility of a peak between 11-15 May with 33-35 lakh total ‘active’ infections.
Also, one of America’s highly regarded epidemiologists and biostatisticians, Professor Bhramar Mukherjee of Michigan University, has said that according to her mathematical projections, India could have 500,000 daily Covid-19 cases and 3,000 daily Covid deaths by May.
She has told Karan Thapar in a 28-minute interview for The Wire that in terms of infections, the peak will come in mid-May when India could see 8-10 lakh daily infections and in terms of deaths, the peak will be two weeks later in May-end when India co\uld expect 4,500 daily deaths.
This means the number of ‘active’ cases in India will keep increasing roughly for another three weeks before a decline.
If the current model shows the trend correctly, the mid-May peak would be three time higher than the first peak of over 10 lakh ‘active’ cases witnessed on 17 September last year.
According to Manindra Agrawal of IIT Kanpur, involved with the national ‘super model’ initiative, ‘Our model shows a peak of cases of ‘new’ infections, which are being observed on a day-to-day basis, may be noticed during May 1-5 at about 3.3 to 3.5 lakh infections per day. It will turn the peak of ‘active’ cases to around 33-35 lakhs 10 days later between 11-15 May.’