India to capture 20% of global smartphone output in 2025

India is poised to become the biggest beneficiary of a shifting global smartphone manufacturing landscape in 2025, with its output projected to grow in double digits, capturing a record 20 per cent share of global smartphone production, according to a new report by Counterpoint Research. This growth comes at a time when global smartphone manufacturing is expected to decline by 1 per cent year-on-year, following a modest 4 per cent growth in 2024. The slowdown is largely attributed to tariff impacts and broader industry stagnation post-pandemic. In 2024, China, India, and Vietnam together accounted for over 90 per cent of global smartphone output, with India leading the charge in growth. However, in 2025, China is likely to face a decline in production due to tariff pressures and weaker domestic market performance. The report notes that the tariff-related disruptions have severely impacted the industry — from component suppliers to distributors — pushing global brands to reallocate production capacities away from China. “Consequently, brand owners have no choice but to move out of China and allocate more production capacity and output in other countries,” said Ivan Lam, Senior Analyst at Counterpoint Research. India and Vietnam have emerged as the top alternatives. While Vietnam benefits from its proximity to China and a mature electronics export sector, India is witnessing a robust growth trajectory, largely driven by increased export demand from Apple and Samsung, and a maturing domestic ecosystem. “India’s local manufacturing capabilities have significantly improved and are now capable of meeting higher production demands – after nearly a decade of refinement,” said Prachir Singh, another Senior Analyst at Counterpoint. Further fuelling India’s ascent is the government’s proactive push to boost the electronics manufacturing ecosystem. The recently launched Electronics Components Manufacturing Scheme (ECMS) offers incentives to companies investing in component production, laying the groundwork for a more self-reliant and high-capacity manufacturing sector. As global players continue to diversify their supply chains, India’s strategic positioning and improved capabilities are making it a global smartphone manufacturing powerhouse, with long-term growth prospects well in sight.