India’s poverty rate likely to decline further to 4.6%

India’s poverty continues to decline steadily, with the poverty rate likely to fall to 4.6 per cent in 2024, estimates a recent report by the State Bank of India (SBI). This marks a significant improvement from the 5.3 per cent poverty rate estimated by the World Bank for India in 2023. The report said “Poverty estimates by SBI and World Bank are remarkably similar…. SBI estimates it at 4.6 per cent in 2024…down from 5.3 per cent in 2023 as estimated by World Bank”. The report highlighted that the country has made remarkable progress in reducing poverty, and its latest estimate shows a further fall from the World Bank’s assessment. The decline in poverty is largely supported by new methods of data collection and updated definitions. India’s recent Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES) adopted the Modified Mixed Recall Period (MMRP) method, replacing the older Uniform Reference Period (URP). As per report, this new method uses shorter recall periods for items that are purchased more frequently, providing a more accurate picture of household consumption. As a result, recorded consumption in national surveys have gone up, which in turn has lowered the estimated poverty levels. For instance, in 2011-12, using MMRP reduced India’s poverty rate from 22.9 per cent to 16.22 per cent under the older USD 2.15 per day poverty line. In the 2022-23 survey, poverty stood at just 5.25 per cent under the new hiked USD 3.00 per day poverty line, and even lower at 2.35 per cent under the old USD 2.15 line. The World Bank recently revised the global poverty line from USD 2.15 per day (2017 PPP) to USD 3.00 per day (2021 PPP), which initially increased the global count of people in extreme poverty by 226 million. However, India emerged as a statistical outlier in a positive way. Thanks to its revised consumption data and improved survey methods, India’s updated figures actually helped reduce the global poverty count by 125 million. The SBI report noted that recent estimates for India’s poverty ratio are comparable with World Bank’s numbers, after making adjustments for differences in methodology and definitions. The continued fall in India’s poverty rate highlights the success of its economic reforms, targeted welfare schemes, and improved data systems. @@@