India’s purchase of Russian crude oil has surged 50 per cent in March as New Delhi tapped alternate sources to make up for the shortfall arising from disruption in the Middle East amid a widening military conflict.
India bought about 1.5 million barrels of Russian oil this month, up from 1.04 million bpd in February, ship tracking data showed.
India, the world’s third-largest crude importer, sources 88 per cent of its oil needs from abroad. It consumes 5.8 million barrels per day, of which 2.5-2.7 million barrels came from Middle East countries like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE via the Strait of Hormuz.
The chokepoint also carried 55 per cent of India’s cooking gas (LPG) and 30 per cent of liquefied natural gas (LNG), used for power, fertilizers, CNG, and household cooking.
The ongoing conflict has largely halted shipments through the strait, forcing India to seek alternative crude sources from Russia.
“India was expected to import around 2.6 million barrels per day of crude via the Strait of Hormuz in March. At the same time, we are seeing a notable pickup in Russian barrels.
“Based on vessel tracking and credible market sources, incremental Russian crude imports in March could reach 1-1.2 million bpd (over and above the February volumes), which means the effective shortfall from Hormuz exposure narrows to around 1.6 million bpd,” said Sumit Ritolia, analyst at Kpler.
In 2025, India’s net refined product exports averaged around 1.1 million bpd. Additionally, there has been a strong push to diversify crude sourcing from alternative suppliers.
“Crude supply risk can be partially mitigated through diversification, and Russia flows. Refined product supply remains relatively comfortable,” he said, adding LPG availability is the real variable to monitor in the coming weeks.
India consumes around 1 million bpd of LPG. Only 40-45 per cent is produced domestically, the remaining 55-60 per cent is imported. Of these imports, around 80-90 per cent typically transit through the Strait of Hormuz, making the supply chain particularly sensitive to disruptions in the region.
“Refineries can optimise LPG output by shifting feedstocks away from petrochemical production toward LPG recovery and by adjusting unit operations to maximise LPG yields,” he said. “That said, such optimisation can only provide marginal incremental supply and cannot materially reduce India’s reliance on LPG imports.”
Even if refineries manage to increase LPG output by 10-20 per cent above current domestic production, domestic supply would only rise to roughly 47-50 per cent of total demand, leaving a significant gap that must still be filled through imports, he said adding while sourcing LPG from suppliers outside the Middle East is possible, voyage times are significantly longer, limiting how quickly disrupted cargoes can be replaced.
“The Strait of Hormuz is also a critical route for global LPG trade, and any disruption in the area immediately raises risks for LPG supply and shipping flows.
“A large share of LPG exports from the Middle East – particularly from Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE – passes through Hormuz, making the chokepoint vital for Asian importers,” he said. “India is one of the world’s largest LPG importers and relies heavily on Middle Eastern supply, meaning any disruption in the region could tighten availability for the country.”
India consumes around 900-1000 kilo bpd of LPG, out of which 600 kbd is imported, and in that, 80-90 per cent is from the Middle East.