Chennai: Whether one accepts it or not, the AIADMK, DMK and DMDK are the three major (Dravidian) parties in Tamilnadu, based on their cadre strength, numbers in the Assembly (in past and present) and organisational structure, etc.
With Tamilnadu politics undergoing a major overhaul due to the passing away of Jayalalithaa and Karunanidhi, arrival of top stars Rajinikanth and Kamal Haasan and emergence of new leaders like Edappadi K Palaniswami and T T V Dhinakaran, it’s time for the three to undergo SWOT analysis, to know their strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. And ‘NT’ does it here.
AIADMK
The void left by Jayalalithaa is yet to be filled, though Chief Minister Edappadi K Palaniswami and Deputy Chief Minister O Panneerselvam are successful in running the government and the party after her demise.
STRENGTHS
Loyal cadres
Two Leaves symbol
MGR, Jayalalithaa legacy
Organisational structure
Street smart local satraps
In power for two consecutive terms, since 2011
WEAKNESSES
Lack of charismatic leadership
Misunderstandings between EPS, OPS camps
Non-formation of coordination committee as promised during patch-up, due to which some leaders are apparently unhappy.
OPPORTUNITIES
Local body and Lok Sabha elections, the victories in which would cement the position of EPS and OPS.
Party is in power and a lot of welfare schemes can be implemented to win goodwill of people
Sasikala will stay in jail for another 2.5 years, and the time is more than enough to win over leaders and cadres
Cordial relationship with BJP-led Centre, which may bring projects and funds to Tamilnadu
THREATS
T T V Dhinakaran
18 MLAs disqualification case
A case by K C Palanisamy against EPS-OPS leadership
Outcome of Income Tax raids
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DMK
The DMK is now in a crucial transition phase, with the passing away of Karunanidhi. It all depends on Stalin and the leadership he is going to provide.
STRENGTHS
Dedicated followers
Karunanidhi’s legacy
Rising Sun symbol
Organisational set-up
Strong local leaders
Achievements’ of the past
WEAKNESSES
Tainted image
Influential persons sticking to their posts for decades
Intra-party rivalry
OPPORTUNITIES
Emergence of Stalin as supreme leader after Annadurai and Karunanidhi
Lack of strong leadership in rival camps
Parliament elections and civic polls
Strong presence on social media, which can be converted into votes
THREATS
M K Alagiri
Some senior leaders who are said to be eyeing plum posts after Karunanidhi’s demise
Rajinikanth’s political entry
Final verdicts in 2G and illegal telephone exchange cases
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DMDK
A party which posed a big threat to the AIADMK and DMK, even when Jayalalithaa and Karunanidhi were alive and active, is not in form now.
STRENGTHS
Vijayakanth
Fans-turned-followers of the actor-politician
Organisational structure on a par with AIADMK and DMK
Pro-poor image
WEAKNESSES
Health of ‘Captain’
Family influence in party
Not being able to win even one seat in 2016 Assembly elections
OPPORTUNITIES
Vijayakanth may emerge an alternative to Karunanidhi and Jayalalithaa, if his health permits
Ability to build an alliance against Dravidian majors
LS and local polls provide (last?) opportunity to prove support among people
THREATS
Entry of Rajinikanth and Kamal Haasan into politics
Cadres may get attracted towards other parties
Cash-rich Dravidian giants.