How powerful is anti-incumbency?

Chennai: May 2 will give most of us insights on understanding people with respect to
politics and progress.

Actually on that day we would come to know on how our understanding of people’s mindset has performed in predicting the election results- Whether our understanding was Right, Wrong, Under estimated, Over estimated  or was it Confused?, says management expert and professor Vijaykumar Jayaram.

He says, ‘it is not just our understanding but that of the heavy weight  political parties’ understanding on people – their needs and preferences. In other words how have the political parties positioned themselves in the minds of the  people on election eve? Rightly positioned? Over positioned?’

According to him, ‘All eyes will be focused on Tamilnadu and West Bengal and particularly on the heavily paid Analytica groups who claim to influence people’s voting preferences.The position of a party’s image also evolves internally which we call as self worth of the individual member or that of an in-group. Main positioning is that which happens externally which we may call as the people’s reflection on the party’s values, worthiness and its potential to deliver in future. It would not be appropriate to predict who is going to win the TN or WB elections without considering the basics of victory. And most certainly the results are predictable if  one can understand and decode just two key questions.’

VKJ says, ‘Power supply, commodity prices, job opportunities, Covid-19 crisis support, essential supplies, educational facilities, transporation cost, infrastructural benefits, subsides and freebies can be grouped as a bundle of maintenance factors. Whereas the motivational factors bundle in this case are totally emotional (motivational) such as cultural pride, religion/caste harmony, security to citizens, recognitions, respect and concession to women, peaceful atmosphere and national integrity.’

‘Which ever party that rightly positions itself as a strong provider in the above viz. maintenance and motivation factors will clearly  with the elections. The fate of parties with wrong or confused positioning is obvious. Under positioned parties may spring a surprise and the over positioned parties may face disappointment. ‘

He says, ‘This analysis is very simple, authentic and it needs only an understanding on two factors, rather just two
simple questions –  Are the people’s maintenance factors in favor of the said
political party’s image? Are the people’s emotional connect or motivation factors in
favor of the said party?’

‘If maintenance factors as mentioned above are bundled with high to low values on the X axis and Emotional connects like religion, social issues being the motivational bundle are similarly positioned on the Y axis we would get the above four segments A, B, C, D. Segment A would indicate a clear majority win. If both
big parties get positioned in B or D segment it would lead to hung assemble or a minority government. It is next to impossible for both the parties to get into C segment. And if it does happen we would find an independent candidate or smaller party winning only in that particular province as their local strengths are good in
both factors in question. Such a happening is very rare or exceptional and need not
tilt the whole election results as India is a democratic nation.’

‘Finally, any change or anti-incumbency will have two forces working, one for the change and the other force against the change. But well the final answer is again, what do these two forces depend on? Very simple. Go back to the two key questions and ask which party scores? Remember, public memory is short and neuro-plastic
too’, he winds up.