Washington, May 20: US President Donald Trump’s tariff offensive has led European officials to cut back their growth forecasts for this year and next — even in a best-case scenario in which the highest rates on most goods could be negotiated away.The forecast for this year for the 20 countries that use the euro currency was cut to 0.9 per cent from the previous forecast in November of 1.3 per cent, the European Union’s executive commission said Monday in its regular spring forecast.
The forecast for 2026 was cut to 1.4 per cent from 1.6 per cent.
One reason for the lower growth estimate was the stagnating economy in Germany, where growth is expected to be zero this year after two years of shrinking output.
Germany’s economy is heavily dependent on exports but has faced strong headwinds from higher energy costs after the loss of Russian natural gas due to the invasion of Ukraine as well from lack of pro-growth infrastructure spending and competition from China in autos and industrial machinery.
The proposal for a 20 per cent US tariff on imported goods from Europe in addition to its suspension for 90 days have meant uncertainty “not seen since the darkest days of the COVID-19 pandemic,” said Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis.
He said the European economy remained “resilient” and that the jobs market remained robust, with the commission predicting a fall in unemployment to a record low 5.7 per cent next year.
And the risks are “tilted to the downside”, he said. One reason: The forecast assumes that the proposed 20 per cent rate can be reduced through negotiations with Washington to the base tariff rate imposed on all countries of 10 per cent.
While the EU’s top trade official, Maros Sefcovic, has spoken several times with administration officials it remains uncertain how willing Trump might be to reduce the rate.
The forecast assumed that 25 per cent tariffs on steel and autos from all countries will remain in place, as would exemptions on computer chips and pharmaceuticals.