Chennai, Sept 25:
India could witness around 15,800 additional heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027 compared with a normal year, amid the impact of an unusually strong El Niño event, according to a study by the Climate Impact Lab of the University of Chicago’s Energy Policy Institute.
The estimate refers to additional deaths projected to occur because of unusually high temperatures and is not a count of deaths that have already occurred. The researchers have estimated the figure by comparing expected heat-related mortality with average conditions during the corresponding period.
The study projects that global land temperatures could be around 1.2 degrees Celsius above normal during the period, with the number of extremely hot days expected to be 44 per cent higher than in a normal year. The researchers have linked much of the projected increase in heat exposure to the current El Niño event.
Of the projected 15,800 additional heat-related deaths in India, around 7,400 could occur between December 2026 and February 2027, according to the study. Researchers have also cautioned that heat-related mortality in India could continue to rise during the summer months beyond the current six-month forecast period.
Globally, the Climate Impact Lab estimates around 239,000 additional heat-related deaths between September 2026 and February 2027. Looking at the broader period from June 2026, when the current El Niño event began, through February 2027, the estimated additional mortality rises to around 451,000.
The researchers have called for advance measures to reduce the potential impact, including heat early-warning systems, cooling centres, hydration facilities, protection for outdoor workers and stronger health outreach for vulnerable communities.
The World Meteorological Organisation has also warned that El Niño can significantly alter temperature and rainfall patterns, although its impact varies between regions and is influenced by other climate factors. The projected figures are estimates based on climate and mortality modelling and could change as weather conditions and forecasts evolve.