Chennai, Oct 29:
A fresh low-pressure area formed over the Bay of Bengal on Thursday morning, the fourth successive weather system since the onset of the Northeast Monsoon, with the system expected to intensify further.
The possibility of it developing into a cyclone and crossing the North Tamil Nadu coast near Chennai around November 1 or 2 has not been ruled out.
The system has formed over the South Andaman Sea and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal. If it intensifies into a cyclone, it could move towards the North Tamil Nadu coast, unlike Cyclonic Storm Arnab, which crossed the Andhra Pradesh coast on Wednesday without making landfall in Tamil Nadu.
The latest system is expected to revive rainfall activity after a brief lull. Private weather forecasters have indicated the possibility of heavy rain in Chennai and other northern coastal districts of Tamil Nadu from November 1. If the system strengthens further, Chennai could receive heavy to very heavy rainfall on November 1 and 2, with a possible landfall along the coast between Chennai and Andhra Pradesh.
In its morning bulletin, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said a low-pressure area had formed over the South Andaman Sea and adjoining areas under the influence of an upper-air cyclonic circulation. It is very likely to move west-northwestwards and become a well-marked low-pressure area over the South Andaman Sea and adjoining Andaman and Nicobar Islands within the next 24 hours.
The IMD further said the system was likely to concentrate into a depression over the southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining areas of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and the Andaman Sea during the subsequent 24 hours.
Regional Meteorological Centre, Chennai, Director V R Durai said it was too early to predict the systemâs eventual track and direction accurately. âBefore the system intensifies into a cyclone, it is difficult to determine precisely which direction it would take and how it would move. However, current weather models indicate that it could move towards Northern Tamil Nadu,â he said.
Independent weather blogger R Hemachander, citing the latest satellite imagery, said a fresh low-pressure area had formed over the Gulf of Thailand and adjoining seas and was likely to move west-northwestwards towards the North Tamil Nadu and adjoining South Andhra Pradesh coasts in early November, possibly on November 1 or 2.
In a post on X, he said there was a strong possibility of the system intensifying into a depression and moving towards the North coastal Tamil Nadu and extreme South coastal Andhra Pradesh coasts. The system could mark the second round of Northeast Monsoon activity in the region after the temporary lull.