Democrats braced for disaster when state legislatures began redrawing congressional maps, fearing that Republican dominance of statehouses would tilt power away from them for the next decade.
But as the redistricting process reaches its final stages, that anxiety is beginning to ease. For Democrats, the worst-case scenario of losing well over a dozen seats in the US House appears unlikely to happen.
After some aggressive map drawing of their own in states with Democratic legislatures, some Democrats predict the typical congressional district will shift from leaning to the right of the national vote to matching it, ending a distortion that gave the GOP a built-in advantage over the past five House elections.
We have stymied their intent to gerrymander their way to a House majority, Kelly Ward Burton, head of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, said of the GOP.
The nation’s congressional maps won’t be settled for several more months. Republicans in some large states like Florida have yet to finalize proposed changes, giving the GOP a last-minute opportunity to seek an advantage. But the picture could come into greater clarity this week when New York’s redistricting commission submits to the state legislature a second attempt to draw a map.
If the Democratic-controlled Legislature rejects the map, it can take over drawing new lines in Democrats’ favour. That would almost certainly blunt the GOP advantage that has been in place since the last redistricting process in 2010. The jockeying in state capitals has implications not just for Democrats’ uphill effort to maintain a majority in the U.S. House in this year’s midterm elections. It will affect the broader balance of power in Washington and state legislatures for the remainder of the decade.
While Republicans say they’ve achieved their goals so far, they’re surprised at how much Democrats have tried to expand the number of seats their party can win. The GOP has taken a markedly different approach by aiming to shore up its vulnerable members’ districts, transforming competitive seats into safe ones.
That’s in part because Republicans already expanded the map with aggressive redistricting after the 2010 census, when they controlled more states. Now, as the lines are adjusted to meet last year’s census figures, they are locking in their gains while Democrats are taking risks to fight back. In a wave election, Democrats could lose even more seats in the maps they have drawn because they spread their voters so thin, analysts say.
And, if political coalitions shift in upcoming years, seats Democrats thought were within reach could suddenly disappear. Republicans have given themselves pretty good tsunami protection, said Michael Li of the Brennan Center for Justice, which tracks redistricting. But for Democrats, if it rains a little, their house is flooded. The Democratic push comes as the party has unsuccessfully fought to ban partisan gerrymandering nationwide their elections bill barring the practice died in the Senate last week during a Republican filibuster.
Li said Democrats, however, are still gerrymandering in states they control, sometimes aggressively as in Illinois, other times relatively lightly, as in New Mexico and Oregon. In contrast, experts say Republicans, who control more states, have gerrymandered heavily in places like Texas, North Carolina and Ohio. But the GOP’s Ohio maps were tossed out by the state Supreme Court this month, and Democrats are hopeful North Carolina’s high court follows suit with the districts there, part of the reason for the party’s increased optimism.
The next and biggest opportunity for Democrats is in New York, which will test how much power Democrats are willing to give up to fight to gerrymander.