‘We shouldn’t talk about despair, but hope’, says our learned Finance Minister. He should know better, having been at the helm of the country’s not-so-good finances for the last five months, though his averment itself betrays a tinge of despair.
And his repeated assertions at every available forum that the economy is all set to turn a new leaf and the only thing that has to happen is just a flip of the calender from August to September, must most certainly be based on some sure trends if not firm convictions.
We must assure the FM that we would also love to believe so, for who wouldn’t want to dream, be it day dreams or even pipe dreams? Surely, life thrives on hope and so it is our very fond hope that the Finance Minister is right and his predictions come true. And that come September, it is going to be hunky-dory for the economy what with public spending zooming, stock markets booming, disinvestments gathering pace, infrastructure projects gaining momentum, the rupee stabilising…..all in a day!
All this can happen, the FM, whose faith in the economy seems to be inversely proportional to the prevailing ground realities, would assure us. If wishes were horses, we may add. For, to imagine that the ills that plague the economy could be so easily remedied with as simple a prescription seems far-fetched and even ridiculous, notwithstanding an overwhelming temptation to share the FM’s optimism and join his grand dream.
Perhaps, Yashwant Sinha, in continuation of his dream, also seems to believe that he holds a magic wand and all he has to do is to wave it and say, ‘Let there be prosperity’ and bingo, the land would have become one where milk and honey, swadeshi or videshi, flowed. Of course, he is entitled to his delusions and it would be uncharitable on our part to disturb his stupor.
After all he has just finished rolling back his budget, by no means an easy task and the gruelling demands of coalition politics must have left him high and dry, panting for some relief. Hence the sojourn in dreamland.
However, it would be wholly unfair on our part to put the blame for the current economic afflictions at Yashwant Sinha’s doorstep, though the BJP government has, in just five months, done its bit to aggravate the crisis. The nuclear blasts, for one, have put the country in an unenviable position vis-a-vis economy, and whether we succeeded in deterring Pakistan or not, the fact remains that the economic sanctions have certainly deterred several prospective investors.
One will promptly hear the resurgent voice of India emanating from the mandarins of North Block on the country’s latest tryst, or shall we call Bond, with its overseas residents. It pains to play spoilsport, but I am more inclined to wait before counting the chicken, for all the giant inflows, creditable no doubt, are also at a much higher cost when compared to world rates and can be justified only depending on how efficiently they are going to be utilised.
The resurgence would turn out to be a disaster, if after five years when the bonds mature for redemption, we discover that all the money actually went down the drain, which is not wholly unthinkable, given our penchant for improvidence. Secondly, it remains to be seen how much of it is truly an inflow for it would be tantamount to pure window dressing to treat the amounts that took flight from the NRI accounts of our own banks to the RIBs also as fresh accruals.
All this euphoria about the RIBs is because it stands out at as the only ‘success’ the FM can boast of in an otherwise uneventful financial regime a la Pokhran in a Thar desert. A lone swallow that does not necessarily herald a summer.
The FM, of course, has several tricks up his kurta sleeve. He intends to unleash a plethora of swallows from his aviary of reforms to ensure that the summer for the economy is truly and well around. But then words are futile and we have heard them all before, not once but several times over and from quite a few FMs in the past. If anything, only the stock markets may find some cheer from the FM’s tall talk, albeit temporarily, for that crazy place is known for shedding its index at the drop of a hat.
There is really little reason to share the FM’s theory of economic revival and it would be a tall order to even maintain the present rate of growth, given the scenario of despondency and doom. The cobwebs of gloom cannot easily be cleared, for they have set in and hardened over the last two to three years of political uncertainty and directionless policies, not to speak of the ominous portents of a global recession.
More importantly, there is really no two opinions on what needs to be done in every sector to pep up the economy at the macro- level. Despite the BJP’s declared love for swadeshi, there is a broad consensus among all political parties on the merits of pursuing the programme of liberalisation authored by the Rao-Manmohan duo.
And much of the theoretical framework and to a large extent, even legislative and legal support already exist. What is needed now is not talk but action. The only thing the FM has to do is to implement whatever he and his predecessors have promised to do. The familiar line that things are easier said than done needs to be broken and the FM must make bold to break clear of all shackles, primarily self-imposed, and go ahead.
And still, it can only be a small first step, for the ground to be covered is vast and needs time. It would require an undiluted conviction in reforms and its dogged pursuit besides the guts to take unpopular decisions in the teeth of opposition, for quite a few months before the first signs of recovery become evident. Even with that there are several imponderables like the East Asian crises, lifting of sanctions et al, but efforts are a must, whether they bear fruit or not.
It is in this context that one gets sceptical and even cynical about the FM’s confidence. In a grim situation where even persons with the will and ability may find the going tough, it is difficult to believe that even if Yashwant has those qualities, he would be allowed the roomspace to operate. For starters, the Sangh Parivar has today expressed its total disenchantment with the BJP’s economic policy, even when nothing has really begun and it is unclear how the FM is going to beat the Big Brother, leave alone tackling the allies.
And so we are back to where we started, for even the RSS cannot prevent the FM from dreaming. The latter on his part, if and when he fails to deliver though we wish not, can take the familiar line which runs thus: Come September, true, but which September?
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