China loses face but refuses to back down

China is recovering from the covid-19 outbreak that swept through the population, enjoying a lull before another peak is expected later in the year. Even while the average Chinese is consumed primarily with keeping their job and weathering an economic storm, the authorities in Beijing persist in doubling down on troublesome foreign policies that cost it credibility in the world’s eyes. The high-altitude balloon saga is emblematic of China’s tendency to come out swinging whenever it is embarrassed or cornered. It was the same during the uncontrolled spiralling of deaths from covid, and now there is a danger that China will back Russia’s war in Ukraine more strongly than before. As Professor Anne-Marie Brady, an expert on Chinese policy at Canterbury University in New Zealand, explained, “A common pattern in the Xi era is, when the regime is caught out, such as foreign interference, the Solomons security treaty or spy balloon incursions, they entrench activities, try plausible deniability and won’t back down. From smiley face diplomacy to wolf warrior in a second.” Returning to covid-19, it is impossible to know how many Chinese died in the virus surge after Chairman Xi Jinping abandoned his much-vaunted zero-covid policy without warning. An official count, covering December 8, 2022, till January 12, 2023, listed 5,503 deaths due to respiratory failure from covid, and another 54,435 with underlying conditions. Jiao Yahui, Director of the National Health Commission’s medical affairs department, said the average age of fatalities was 80.3 years, and 90 per cent were aged 65 or over. However, the enormous problem is that Chinese data cannot be trusted. By 21 January, probably 80 per cent of the population had caught covid, and many analysts estimate 1-1.5 million died. China should have a higher mortality rate than most Western countries because it has minimal herd immunity and its home-grown vaccinations are not as effective.