The forthcoming Parli polls took on the shades of a US style Presidential poll in popular thinking the moment Modi emerged as the BJP’s PM candidate. The party itself, despite a wide cadre and leader base, long-standing traditions of collective leadership and strong idelogical moorings, did not hesitate to pin its whole fate on that one chosen man.
But is this a Presidential poll really? If so there must be at least two combatants locked in an one-to-one head on fight, that would leave one winner and one loser. Now, where or who is the other one? There is no answering this except perhaps by resorting to that cliched caper over a banana from a Tamil movie of ‘80s vintage: He is that! It increasingly looks like Modi & Modi.
This is not to say that Modi will romp home hands down, unopposed. There is indeed a very tough battle ahead of him. The point is while he is the visible protagonist his opponents constitute several sulking shadows, that can materialise or just fade away. And if Modi becomes PM, which can happen if the NDA crosses 225 to 230 plus, all credit will redound to his personality, hoisting a clear winner on the pedestal. But if his formation falls short of 200, he would be a loser, but with no winner in the arena which would then be littered with losers, all leveraging for a lift to Race Course Road. At best, there could be King, or for that matter, Queen-makers, foisting the first among the fallen, who still can never be deemed a ‘Presidential’ winner. May be just ‘Presidential’, for such a PM could only be a dummy!
Of course, such contest as now is not new. The 1977 and 1980 polls were all about Indira Gandhi, a virtual referendum on ‘her’ personality. In ‘77 Indira lost and an abstract assortment gathered in the Capital’s power corridors. In ‘80 Indira won and the apparitions vanished. On the first occasion, thanks to the Emergency, she made an easy target of herself to all snipers in the shades and paid the price. Three years later, she did nothing but waited out and allowed her ‘victors’ to perish under their own weights and fights. She was in that way the first Presidential PM, with her Congress Party just a democratic facade. I would not count Nehru because his reign passed off under the fredom struggle aura and also, the Congress party then did possess strength on its own besides other stalwarts too.
An election wrapped around just one personality has ramifications for the BJP as well as the people. There are indeed major issues raging in the voters’ domain. Good governance, growth and a grease-less Government top the people’s agenda since all of these have become extinct in the last ten years. But even these are vested in the personality of Modi, in the BJP’s scheme of things and also amidst large tranches of voters. His Gujarat model along with other BJP ruled States are being showcased as success stories that can be replicated at the national level. This ‘Sink or Sail with Modi’ approach is a gamble that a democratic party has played at great risks.
The ‘Modi’ obsession plagues the opposition too. Having forfeited all claims to any positive agenda, almost every party outside the NDA is ‘banking on M to deliver for it too. Rahul, the only possible “Presidential’ contender has virtually ruled himself out, probably not wanting to wait for the people to do that. His campaign’s goal is to stop Modi, not to make the Congress win, which his inner voices must have warned him as impossible. Other parties like the Left and Nitish’s outfit try to raise the communal bogey, which in the current frozen scenario is refusing to get ignited. But AAP takes the cake now. When Kejriwal quit Delhi, it was said his was a one-agenda (Lokpal) centric party. It now looks even that single-track has been jumped. Kejriwal is presently in a frantic race to beat others in Modi-baiting and bashing, holding just the stick with the broom gone. He expects his tested strategy … or bluff, of talking big and taking on big targets to deliver again, making him the first among rivals.
BJP’s gamble and the opposition’s gameplan opens the arena for the people’s gambit. Is the ‘man is the message’ milieu a boon or a bane? Can one individual personify so many positive possibilities or is it the people’s hopes that is magnifying the promise of a politician, albeit, a performing one, beyond realistic levels? Is such a polarisation of voters around one person compatible with democracy? Or is it that whatever the pious intentions or professed policies of a democratically elected party, it takes a determined leader to carry them through?
There are questions galore. And rationales abound. But make no mistake, at current sights, this election is all about whether the voters across India want NaMo as PM or not.
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