Trump struggles to sway Saudi prince on Israel ties

President Donald Trump is intensifying his push to secure a historic normalisation deal between Saudi Arabia and Israel, hoping to expand the Abraham Accords as part of his broader Middle East strategy. The issue is expected to dominate talks when he hosts Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) at the White House. Trump publicly expresses strong confidence that Riyadh will soon join the accords, but internal US assessments are more cautious. Senior officials say Saudi Arabia is unlikely to sign a deal soon, though there is optimism that an agreement might be reachable by the end of Trump’s second term. Efforts by both the Trump and Biden administrations previously failed, largely because of Saudi insistence on a credible path toward Palestinian statehood, a demand that Israel firmly rejects. Although MBS is more flexible than his father, King Salman, the Gaza war and its humanitarian fallout have hardened Saudi public opinion. Analysts warn that images of devastation in Gaza and ongoing Israeli settler violence in the West Bank make near-term progress difficult. Trump’s 20-point Gaza peace plan could serve as a framework to convince MBS, but pushing Israel toward concessions risks alienating the Israeli government, whose cooperation Trump needs. US officials say the most realistic outcome of this week’s meeting would be a Saudi acknowledgement of the plan as a starting point and a willingness to consider joining the accords. The crown prince is also expected to seek defence guarantees and approval to purchase US F-35 fighter jets, but the administration is reluctant to proceed due to concerns about Israel’s military edge and potential technology leaks to China. Although Trump is known for unpredictability, officials say such a deal is unlikely during this visit. Ultimately, Trump faces significant political and diplomatic headwinds, even as both sides see long-term strategic incentives for eventual Saudi-Israel normalisation.