Low hopes for talks between Russia & Ukraine

A Ukrainian delegation is traveling to Geneva for another round of US-brokered talks with Russian officials, just ahead of the fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday, the Geneva discussions are not expected to yield significant progress, as both sides remain firmly entrenched on key issues, particularly the future of Ukrainian territory currently occupied by or claimed by Russia. The United States has set a June deadline for a possible settlement, but analysts remain skeptical about the prospects for meaningful compromise. Ukrainian forces continue to wage a war of attrition along an approximately 1,250-kilometre (750-mile) front line against Russia’s larger army. Civilians in Ukraine endure repeated Russian aerial bombardments that frequently knock out power and destroy homes. At the same time, Ukraine has developed drones capable of striking deep into Russian territory, targeting oil refineries, arms depots, and other military infrastructure. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said the Geneva talks will cover “a broader range of issues related to the territories and other demands” but did not provide specifics. Observers note that Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to believe time favors Moscow, expecting Western support for Ukraine to diminish and Ukrainian resistance to eventually weaken under sustained pressure. Ukraine’s delegation will be led by Rustem Umerov, head of the National Security and Defense Council. Gen Kyrylo Budanov, chief of staff to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, shared a photograph on Telegram showing the team traveling by train to Geneva, illustrating the logistical challenges of movement given the closure of Ukrainian airspace. Moscow’s delegation will be led by Vladimir Medinsky, who previously headed Russia’s team during the first direct talks in Istanbul in March 2022. Other senior members include Igor Kostyukov, head of Russian military intelligence, and Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin. It remains uncertain which US officials will attend; in recent Abu Dhabi talks, envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner represented the Trump administration. Any potential compromises discussed in Geneva must be reported to the leaders of both countries before acceptance. Despite ongoing diplomatic efforts, entrenched positions, continued fighting, and complex territorial disputes indicate that a breakthrough in negotiations is unlikely in the near term, leaving the conflict unresolved as the fourth anniversary of the war approaches.