Tamil Nadu is expected to experience an early and intense summer beginning in the first week of March, with temperatures likely to be higher than last year.
Forecasts say that the core summer months — March, April and May — will record above-normal temperatures across the State. Out of the 12 weeks that typically make up the summer season:
Around 4 to 6 weeks may witness intense heat and dry conditions
Nearly 2 weeks could receive convective thunder showers
About 3 to 4 weeks are likely to experience near-normal temperatures
Convective rainfall, which usually brings short but sharp evening thunderstorms, is expected to begin towards the end of March, offering temporary relief in some regions.
Although the Southwest Monsoon is likely to set in around June, elevated temperature levels may persist across Tamil Nadu well beyond the traditional summer window. The analyst cautioned that the heat could continue until late September or even early October in several parts of the State.
The projected rise in temperature has been linked to the potential development of El Niño, a climatic phenomenon associated with reduced rainfall and warmer-than-usual conditions in many regions, including parts of India.
If El Nino conditions strengthen, it could intensify heat levels and prolong dry spells during the pre-monsoon and early monsoon months.
Looking beyond this year, the outlook suggests that 2026 could be significantly warmer, with 2027 potentially witnessing even stronger heatwave conditions — particularly during March and April.
With the summer season approaching, residents are advised to prepare for extended periods of heat, stay hydrated and take necessary precautions as Tamil Nadu heads into what could be a prolonged and intense warm spell.