The latest warning from the International Energy Agency underscores a hard truth: Southeast Asia’s energy model is dangerously exposed to geopolitical shocks. The heavy dependence on oil and gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz has turned a distant conflict into a direct economic threat, driving up energy costs and inflation across the region. What was once seen as a manageable dependency has now emerged as a strategic vulnerability.
While the crisis has triggered positive shifts—such as increased adoption of electric vehicles, renewed interest in nuclear energy, and rapid expansion of rooftop solar—these changes remain incremental compared to the scale of the challenge. The temporary fallback on coal during the crisis also reveals a deeper contradiction: even as nations pledge cleaner energy transitions, immediate energy security concerns continue to pull them back toward fossil fuels.
The real test lies ahead. Without decisive policy reforms and faster diversification of energy sources and supply routes, Southeast Asia risks locking itself into a cycle of rising import bills and economic instability. The projected surge in energy costs by 2035 is not just a financial concern but a signal that the region must act urgently—or pay a far higher price later.