In a striking geopolitical shift, United States President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff measures against China and India earlier this year have inadvertently paved the way for a thaw in India-China relations, according to a Bloomberg report.
The report, citing an unnamed Indian official, revealed that Chinese President Xi Jinping personally reached out to India with a confidential letter addressed to President Droupadi Murmu. The message, which was swiftly conveyed to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, reportedly expressed Beijing’s concerns about any Indo-US trade agreements that could undermine China’s strategic and economic interests. Xi’s letter also named a senior provincial official tasked with spearheading Beijing’s efforts to engage New Delhi diplomatically.
India Responds Amid Rising US Pressure
The outreach from Beijing reportedly gained traction in June when New Delhi was negotiating its own trade concerns with Washington, amid Trump’s escalating rhetoric. At the time, Trump had claimed personal credit for brokering a ceasefire between India and Pakistan following heightened tensions over the Pahalgam terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir, in which 26 people were killed.
Stung by the sudden tariff hikes, both India and China began exploring ways to stabilize bilateral relations. The renewed talks aimed to move past the bruising 2020 border clashes at Galwan, which had severely strained ties.
Concrete Steps to Revive Relations
The diplomatic overtures have quickly translated into tangible outcomes:
Resumption of Air Travel: Direct passenger flights between India and China are set to restart within weeks after being suspended for several years.
Trade Cooperation: Beijing has eased restrictions on urea exports to India, a critical move for the country’s agriculture sector.
Visa Relaxations: New Delhi has reopened tourist visas for Chinese nationals, marking another step toward normalization.
The improved bilateral environment marks a surprising turnaround, considering the deep mistrust that followed the deadly border skirmishes. Ironically, Trump’s tariff policy—designed to isolate Beijing and later pressure India—has pushed the two Asian powers closer.
Xi’s Vision of “Elephant and Dragon” Cooperation
China’s diplomatic messaging has reinforced this pivot. In March, shortly after Trump doubled tariffs on Chinese goods, China’s foreign ministry urged India to join forces in “opposing hegemonism and power politics.” Xi Jinping himself used a poetic metaphor to describe the relationship, stating, “Making the elephant and dragon dance together is the only right choice.”
By July, Chinese state media amplified this sentiment. The Global Times, known for reflecting Beijing’s stance, called for a “ballet dance” between India and China to counter Washington’s economic and political pressure.
Focus on SCO Summit
Prime Minister Modi is expected to meet Xi later this week during his visit to China for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit. This will mark Modi’s first visit to China in more than seven years, highlighting the significance of the developing rapprochement. The two leaders last shared a platform at the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, in 2024.
Geopolitical observers say Xi will use the SCO summit to showcase China’s vision of a “post-American-led” international order, emphasizing that Washington’s efforts to contain Beijing, Tehran, Moscow, and now New Delhi are not achieving the desired effect.
“Just look at how much BRICS has rattled Donald Trump,” Eric Olander, editor-in-chief of The China-Global South Project, told Reuters. “These groupings are designed to demonstrate that a multipolar world order is emerging, and this warming of ties between India and China underscores that shift.”
As Modi prepares for his China visit, analysts are watching closely to see whether this latest diplomatic engagement signals a lasting reset or a temporary alignment in the face of U.S. trade pressure.